Sunday, December 29, 2013

Pacific Coal News Dec 17th


The IEA 2013 5-year "Mid-Term" Coal Mkt Report came out yesterday. IEA forecasts 2.3% growth through 2018 with China consuming 60% of that increase in demand. This fcst is lower than last year's 2.6% due to changes in the China forecast (lower growth, more aggressive enviro restrictions and fuel switching). They also predict that many new export coal projects will be cancelled or delayed because there is already too much coal on the market (prices are below marginal cost for quite a number of producers) and all exporters have expansion plans. IEA Executive Summary here.   

Global coal demand growth will slow through 2018 as China, the world's biggest consumer, seeks to cut its dependency on the power plant fuel, according to the International Energy Agency.

A greener China could put $45 billion of Australian coal projects in the red (based on Oxford Stranded Assets report linked to in Austr section) China's insatiable demand for energy has triggered a coal-mine building boom in Australia, which now supplies China with a third of its coal. With plans for 10 massive Australian coal mines worth more than $45 billion under way, investors are counting on China to keep burning the black stuff at a rapid clip to make those projects profitable. But that would a bad bet.

Coal Prices May Run Out of Steam - WSJ Asian Buyers Have Pushed Prices Up Amid Seasonal Stockpiling Thermal-coal prices may be running out of steam as Asian power producers wind down purchases after a period of prewinter stockpiling and an underlying supply glut reasserts itself. Prices of the power-generation fuel have rallied to multimonth highs in China and Australia, two countries that dominate coal supply-demand fundamentals, mirroring moves seen with iron ore.

KOREA
South Korean power utilities 2014 coal procurement to be unchanged on year - Platts The volume of steam coal South Korea's five thermal power utilities are expected to procure next year will be unchanged from the forecast imports of 78 million mt this year, a utility source said.

USA
Four Proposed Coal Export Terminals Have Now Failed This Year Due To 'Diminished' Market As coal continues to decline in the U.S., plans to export it to overseas markets are going south. On Tuesday, the Port of Corpus Christi announced that it was ditching plans to build a major coal export terminal there after two years of development, citing a "seriously diminished" international interest in coal. Ambre Energy North America Inc., who entered into the $2.5 million lease in 2011, will pay a one-time fee to cancel it, according to a meeting agenda released today by the Port.


CANADA
Canada Regulators Approve Export Permits for LNG Proposals WSJ Canadian federal regulators on Monday approved four new applications to export liquefied natural gas, including for proposed Pacific Coast terminals backed by Exxon Mobil Corp., BG Group PLC and Malaysian state-owned energy giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd, or Petronas. 

Canada's Labor Shortage Threatens $50 Billion LNG Plans - Energy companies trying to raise almost $50 billion for Canada's first network of natural gas export terminals will face an even more basic challenge: finding the workers to build them.

JAPAN
Japan Utilities Use Record Coal, LNG Following Nuclear Shutdowns Japan's regional power companies burned a record amount of coal and liquefied natural gas for November as they relied on the fossil fuels to make up for lost output from offline nuclear reactors.

INDONESIA
Foreigners bet on coal mining in Indonesia Country's low costs remain a draw amid volatile mining rules

AUSTRALIA
Australia approves coal port near Great Barrier Reef A vast new coal port and "shipping super-highway" near Australia's Great Barrier Reef has environmentalists worried.

$50 billion worth of coal mines risk being 'stranded' As much as $US50 billion of proposed coal mine developments in Australia could be at risk due to changes in China's anticipated demand, with these assets likely to become ''stranded'' if they proceed.

Stranded Down Under? Environment-related factors changing China's demand for coal and what this means for Australian coal assets PDF: http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/stranded-assets/Stranded%20Down%20Under%20Report.pdf

CHINA
China Imported More Coal Than Any Country In History In 2012, As Projected Global Coal Demand Slows

Asia Coal-Australian coal prices inch up on China winter buying (Reuters) - Australian thermal coal prices rose slightly during the past week, as top consumer China stocked up ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays in February.


China's Pollution Revolution - Could Beijing's coal addiction be its downfall? As temperatures drop in the Chinese mainland, schoolchildren there have become acquainted with their own version of a snow day: The smog day ...



Coal News Update Dec. 2nd

KOREA
South Korea to hike power rates, tax coal use - WSJ - In-Soo Nam South Korea said Tuesday that it will raise electricity prices and impose taxes on the use of thermal coal in power plants as the country struggles to meet rising power demand. State-run power utility Korea Electric Power Corp. will be allowed to raise electricity rates by an average 5.4% from Thursday, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said in a statement. ... "The price hike is necessary to better balance the country's power demand and supply situation by possibly curbing demand for electricity," the ministry said in a statement. Asia's fourth-largest economy, which imports almost all of its energy resources, has been levying electricity tariffs on industrial users at well below cost in recent years

S.Korea's KOGAS says prices making it difficult to buy spot LNG - Reuters - Meeyoung Cho| South Korea's Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS) is running into difficulty procuring spot cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to high prices, the head of the world's largest corporate buyer of LNG said on Friday. The state-run gas company is considering lowering the proportion of LNG imports it buys on the spot market, Jang Seok-hyo, president and CEO of KOGAS told Reuters on the sidelines of a South Korea and Canada gas forum.

Asia Spot LNG Prices for December Delivery Rose 11.5% on Stockpiling - Platts On a year-over-year basis, December prices increased 30.75%. Prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for December delivery to Asia increased 11.5% from November to $17.689 per million British thermal units (/MMBtu), as North Asian buyers began to build inventories a

CANADA
China state-owned energy giant draws up plans for massive LNG project in B.C. - Vancouver Sun |The Canadian subsidiary of the state-run giant is seeking permission from Canada's National Energy Board to export 24 million tonnes of super-cooled gas per year, or just over three billion cubic feet a day over 25 years from a proposed terminal at Grassy Point on B.C.'s northern coast, it said in an application to the federal regulator. First cargoes would be in the 2021 to 2023 time frame, the company said.

CNOOC heads group seeking to export B.C. liquefied natural gas - The Globe & Mail - Brent Jang An Asian group led by CNOOC Ltd. of China is seeking a licence to export liquefied natural gas from British Columbia as the competition heats up to develop huge LNG megaprojects on the West Coast.

Vancouver, Edmonton marked for two LNG plant projects - Vancouver Sun - Lauren Krugel Firms team up to construct gas plants to promote use in transportation

China's new cap on coal use could hurt viability of proposed local coal terminals - Vancouver Sun - Chuck Chiang Quek argues additional terminals with the goal of shipping more coal to East Asia may be a waste of time — and money — for those building the terminals. 

JAPAN
Japan's soaring coal use may push down LNG imports this year - Reuters - Osamu Tsukimori Aaron Sheldrick | Coal consumption by utilities jumped 26 pct on year in Oct; 1,600 MW of coal-fired power coming online in Dec; Jan-Oct LNG imports by monopolies down 1 pct

Japan shippers plan to order 90 new LNG tankers worth $17.6 bln by 2020 - Reuters - Yuka Obayashi Keith Wallis | Japan's top shippers plan to order around 90 new liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers worth about 1.8 trillion yen ($17.61 billion) by 2020 as they gear up to transport rising volumes of the superchilled fuel from North America and Australia.

Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), the cash-strapped operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, and three Mitsubishi group companies are seeking to open the new facilities as early as 2020, the leading Nikkei business daily said. The project is aimed at helping TEPCO reduce its reliance on costly natural gas and create jobs in the area, the Nikkei said.

Japanese media are worried what China's natural gas targets will do to LNG prices - Huanqiu Shibao - Hamid Parshiv(?). If China meets its 2020 10% share Nat gas target what will it do to LNG prices? 


CHINA
Shanghai Officials (not Beijing) Tell Children, Elderly to Stay Inside Due to Smog - Time - David Stout | Pollution warning issued a day after the 2013 Shanghai International Marathon

China State Council Pledges Tax Change to Cut Coal Reliance - Caixin - Zhang Xia State Council's new approach would put focus of levies on value instead of volume, raising costs for domestic producers. The cabinet unveiled a document titled an Opinion to Promote the Stable Operation of the Coal Industry on November 28. It says the government will speed up a shift in the coal tax from one focused on volume to one based on value. This would significantly increase costs for coal producers, and thus be an attempt to cut back on the country's heavy use of coal. China is the world's largest producer, buyer and user of coal.

China moves to aid struggling coal industry, cut low-grade imports - Reuters Fayen Wong Rebekah Kebedeh China will raise its threshold for coal imports, tighten approvals for new coal mines and push industry consolidation in a bid to help its coal sector, which is struggling with overcapacity and widespread losses.

China tightens coal mine approval - Xinhua | China will raise the threshold on new coal mines and halt approval on those that do not meet specified requirements, in the latest effort to regulate the oversupplied sector. New coal mines with annual output below 300,000 tonnes and coal-gas outburst collieries with output below 900,000 tonnes will no longer gain approval, says a circular from the General Office of the State Council. Due to falling demand, severe overcapacity and restructuring toward cleaner fuel, the coal industry has been stuck in protracted bickering since last year. Thursday's circular also promised to ease tax burdens on coal producers, strengthen quality checks on imports and improve the exit mechanism to allow swift closure of exhausted mines.

China Aims to Increase Big Coal's Clout - WSJ - China Realtime Report |  In a policy proposal unveiled Thursday, the State Council said it wants big corporate champions to manage the economic development and environmental consequences of the industry, which also has a slew of smaller operators. The government said it would "encourage the consolidation of coal companies, with large-scale companies as the main body, building large-scale modern coal mines within large-scale coal bases."

Chinese firms want to buy coal assets overseas, but on the cheap - Reuters - Sonali Paul Beijing's new environmental policies to boost demand for high-grade coal; Companies wait for valuations to fall, see coal prices staying weak; Tough to wean away China from coal, say consultants

China Coal Weekly: Prices Keep Rising - China Perspective - Tony Jin |The price of the 5,500kcal steam coal in the Bohai Rim rose by 11 yuan to 576 yuan/ton in the week through November 26 2013, according to figures from Cqcoal.com. It was the 7th straight week that of price gain since October 16, and price has risen 8.7%, or 46 yuan

$2bn road for coal trucks opens in Inner Mongolia - Xinhua - Li Yunping shortens distance 100km to 265km, increases capacity 


Both U.S. progress on shale gas and a growing dependency on oil and cars at home have Chinese policymakers hunting for ways to meet a big need. China's oil import dependency has risen from 32 percent at the beginning of this century to 57 percent last year. In the past few years, Chinese car ownership has exploded while the country's oil production has grown only slightly. A few days ago, China's National Energy Administration incorporated shale gas for the first time as a strategic and emerging industry. The government is expected to increase financial support to this industry by reducing fees and royalties and adding new tax breaks to shale gas mining firms.

Energy in mind as China embraces the market - Interfax - Li Xin Market forces could be set to reshape China's energy sector, as Beijing looks to hand them a greater role in commodity prices and in 
state-dominated sectors such as oil and gas

The move away from coal to help address air pollution problems is being undermined by a lack of the alternative energy source. Winter has only just started and China's is experiencing its biggest natural gas shortage ever.At a shareholder's meeting in May, the chairman of China National Petroleum Co. (CNPC), Zhou Jiping, announced that "resources are extremely tight this year." The company supplies nearly 70 percent of China's natural gas. ... Some research institutions predict the country's shortfall will hit 10 billion cubic meters.

China's anti-pollution drive risks running out of gas - Reuters - Adam Rose David Stanway | A chronic shortage of natural gas is hurting China's plan to move away from burning coal to heat homes and offices, raising the prospect of more choking air pollution this winter and beyond. The problem is worst in northern China, where air pollution mainly caused by decades of reliance on coal has lowered life expectancy by an estimated 5.5 years compared to the south, Chinese and international researchers said in July.

China considers pipeline reform to boost gas supply - Reuters - Chen Aizhu David Stanway| PetroChina-dominated grid limits small gas producers;* Small producers forced to sell at discount;* Mandating access could encourage shale, coal bed gas output - As China struggles to rid cities of choking smog, one of the early priorities for Beijing's economic reforms will likely be to force state-run PetroChina to allow private producers fair access to natural gas pipelines.

Environment Low on List of China's Reforms - RFA - Michael Lelyveld | China's government has assigned a relatively low priority to energy and the environment in its agenda of planned reforms, experts say. Recent policy documents released by the ruling Chinese Communist Party Central Committee following its third plenary session under President Xi Jinping make no mention of the smog choking China's cities or immediate steps to bring it under control.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

FW: Export Coal Mkt News Oct 29

The most relevant coal news from the last two weeks of clippings:
China's coal market to remain well supplied in Q4 could but could slip to oversupply in 2014 if growth slows http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINL3N0IC0WN20131022?irpc=932
Chinese coal producers want to rescind export tax http://feedly.com/k/Hkw9Oe

China thermal coal price war that erupted in late June, causing a collapse of nearly 15% in prices, is over http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2013/10/15/china-coal-sector-price-war-is-over-jpm-ups-yanzhou-to-neutral/
Bohai steam coal index goes up for first time this year. Signal a turning point? http://ift.tt/17u1YtC

China coal giant Shenhua cuts 2013 sales target after profit fall - Reuters http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINL3N0IF2Y220131025?irpc=932
Glencore and Sumitomo buy Rio coal mine http://on.ft.com/1gMgt5Q
Rio Tinto sells stake in Australia's Clermont thermal coal mine for US$1.02 billion http://u.afp.com/UCh

Smog suffocates Harbin; Pm 2.5 readings of 1000 in some places http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE99K02Z20131021?irpc=932
Harbin Smog Crisis Highlights China's Coal Problem Natl Geographic http://feedly.com/k/179VDXO

NDRC: raise retail rates for electricity made by burning nat gas and lower rates for coal-fired http://news.hexun.com/2013-10-26/159087509.html

Michael Lelyveld RFA: Multiple Motives Drive China's Plans to Cut Number of Coal Mines http://feedly.com/k/1bvZ626
Fatih Birol IEA chief economist says coal to maintain edge over gas for power in China http://interfaxenergy.com/natural-gas-news-analysis/asia-pacific/coal-to-maintain-edge-over-gas-for-power-in-china/

Half of China's power generation capacity to be built between 2012 and 2020 will be coal-fired, said Woodmackenzie http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/coal-demand-idUSL3N0I40SN20131014
Coal will surpass oil as the key fuel for the global economy by 2020 says Wood Mackenzie http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/coal-demand-idUSL3N0I40SN20131014

Emerging markets expected to make up for China's waning coal appetite http://www.mining.com/emerging-markets-expected-to-make-up-for-chinas-waning-coal-appetite-62518/
Indonesia mining at risk over export ban http://on.ft.com/HfRVBH
China coal imports to keep growing in the years to come, albeit at a slower rate http://feedly.com/k/19PXuNR

Outsourcing Beijing's coal pollution to Xinjiang - Michael Lelyveld in RFA http://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/gas-10212013104621.html
WRI says China's plan to combat air pollution will deplete water supply http://ow.ly/qc734
Water: All dried up in Northern China http://econ.st/1acfXVL

The rest of the clippings:
Graphic of the Day: Myanmar's Mineral Resources http://bit.ly/1a5tI7Y


China aims to cut costs associated with shale natural gas production http://bit.ly/1f04H3f

Sinopec field could reignite China shale hopes: more than doubled its 2015 output target for field in Sichuan basin http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE99R0G720131028?irpc=932

Mongolia pushing for rail, pipeline links with China, Russia, official says http://reut.rs/1g67CL3
Mongolia Premier Welcomes Foreign Investors as Boom Slows http://bloom.bg/1dA0DJe

China's coal barons set sights on new jobs - Xinhua http://feedly.com/k/1imVkKS 

China's troubled shift to a green economy - The Globe and Mail http://feedly.com/k/Hajxsd

Clive Palmer's $6bn China First coalmine faces last two hurdles  http://feedly.com/k/Hhcnmm

China nat resources minister: Gas is the new coal, prices will go up 能源局局长：未来天然气占比将上升 价格要上涨|天然气|能源|价格_新浪财经_新浪网" http://feedly.com/k/1ikKuF9

Bo Xilai and the collapse of Canada's China policy, which had been built around his rise: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/the-inglorious-exit-of-bo-xilai-canadas-closest-ally-in-chinas-power-structure/article15097314/

Inner Mong CTG to help clean capitol air; in rush to fix air, BJ ignores GHG impact 内蒙古清洁能源助力华北雾霾治理 http://bit.ly/18UUGTG

Nat gas consumption through Q3 increased 13.5% vs last year; imports up 27% vs last year 发改委：前三季度国内天然气消费增长13.5%|新浪网 http://feedly.com/k/1hgAkrF

Is haggling over price really the obstacle to China-Russia gas deal?  气价不是俄气同中国天然气合同的主要问题 http://bit.ly/1c2sC0b

Exclusive: In rare China sale, Sinopec seeks partner for Canada shale http://reut.rs/1fZ0fF6

Chinese Acquisition Appetites Shift From Resources http://on.wsj.com/H2gPF5

China shale policy flailing: Beijing writes shale gas policy in NOC's wake http://feedly.com/k/167ajWW

China needs 200 nuclear power plant according to this http://ow.ly/q8uY3

China's new clean air strategies aggravate the confrontation between energy and water http://bit.ly/HhzRIf  More at http://bit.ly/HhzRIh

Caterpillar cuts forecast on mining slump - increased China mkt share and quarterly sales in China increased 30% http://feedly.com/k/1iesmNg

The US Shale "Boom": A Fantasy Concocted By Politicians & Industry Bigwigs?  http://bit.ly/1ahnLHI

The pipeline that cried wolf: Will the Russia-China deal ever close? http://feedly.com/k/1aGqBEl

Cities switching too quickly from coal to gas - China says to control gas use as winter shortages loom http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINL3N0IB1S720131021?irpc=932 …


Fenxi to mine 400mm tonnes of coal in Kenya MT @AfricaAlert: …begin work in 2014 on 950MW power plant  http://bit.ly/1gRR48e

Qinhuangdao coal shipments Sept Ytd up 5% yoy -- China's coal shipments by railway totaled 193 million mt in Sept" http://feedly.com/k/1aXa6oW

Bohai steam coal prices move up"煤炭：环渤海煤价将快速上涨 - 煤炭价格走势 - CMEN.CC" http://feedly.com/k/19f0OVS

Beijing has a new plan to temporarily and dramatically cut emissions when pollution is severe for three straight days http://news.xinhuanet.com/energy/2013-10/18/c_125558411.htm

China risks severe shortfalls with gas expansion and could shorten field life through too hasty development http://feedly.com/k/1aT2BPQ

Focusing a Lens on China's Environmental Challenges http://feedly.com/k/17P6lPh
China's 3rd shale gas auction could kill hope for a shale revolution http://bit.ly/1cTOwXa

China Development Bank role in Africa set to grow even more, CDB current loans in region already total US$ 18.9bn http://bit.ly/1hSKRH1

Xi dreams of camel bells . . . and access to oil and gas: China bypasses American 'New Silk Road' http://wapo.st/1gEyYqa

ADB says Asia Pac will be 50% of global energy consumption in 2035 and invest $20tn "2035年亚太国家对能源的投资或增至19.9万亿美元 http://radiovr.com.cn/news/2013_10_14/246488460/

FW: Pacific export thermal coal in the news Oct. 16


Subject: Pacific export thermal coal in the news Oct. 16
Japan on gas, coal power building spree to fill nuclear void. Regional power monopolies will construct 12 gas-fired units next year, while two new coal power plants will be completed by December 2013, according to a Reuters survey of utilities. http://reut.rs/1fBhVXa

China's state planning agency (NDRC) has issued a notice to cut the on-grid price of thermal electricity in order to reflect a fall in coal prices and encourage renewable power generation, Chinese utility SDIC Power said on Thursday. http://reut.rs/1fkmtB8

China, the world's top producer and consumer of coal, is considering scrapping a 10 percent tariff on exports of steam coal from 2014 to rebalance domestic supplies, the 21st Century Business Herald reported. The proposal, if implemented, would increase seaborne coal supplies in the Asia Pacific market and threaten Australia's market share as a key supplier to North Asia, where Japan and South Korea are among the world's top importers of steam coal. http://t.co/zZKmMHQixN

China thermal coal price war that erupted in late June, causing a collapse of nearly 15% in prices is over http://t.co/bPzbSEKBnR

Bohai steam coal index goes up for first time this year perhaps signalling a turning point http://ift.tt/17u1YtC

China's coal producers struggle to compete, analyst says  http://feedly.com/k/19D7rEo

NDRC: China will raise on-grid prices paid to power generators using natural gas http://t.co/nw7Ghhqloy

China's 3rd shale gas auction could kill hope for a shale revolution http://bit.ly/1cTOwXa

Canada's Natural Resources Minister heads back to China to reassure investors on LNG prospects after bleak message from former official http://bit.ly/1atx9Hz

China bypasses American 'New Silk Road' (Simon Denyer) http://wapo.st/1gEyYqa

$30bn coal gasification plant to be built in Xinjiang will need an input of 90 million tons of coal per year http://nyti.ms/17hLALU

Beijing to replace coal plants in $7.79bn investment http://bit.ly/19eHwAJ  

Demand for coal will be driven by China and India -  ... an opposing camp that argues just as strongly that predictions of coal's demise are exaggerated and that demand will not stop growing. "We think the idea of peak coal is a myth," says Andy Roberts, principal analyst for thermal coal at Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy. http://on.ft.com/15JsfH2

Woodmackenzie: coal will surpass oil as the key fuel for the global economy by 2020 and half of China's power generation capacity to be built between 2012 and 2020 will be coal-fired, said Woodmackenzie http://t.co/GaKWSbaI8r

Peak Coal in China, or Long and High Plateau? http://goo.gl/fb/uXG6y   

ADB says Asia Pac will be 50% of global energy consumption in 2035 and invest $20tn  http://t.co/4XWXc4pnoT

Will China build hundreds of new coal plants and then shut them off ? Wishful thinking http://bit.ly/1c9qDrI

China is set to ramp up acquisitions of overseas oil and gas companies to feed its soaring growth in energy demand  http://reut.rs/17uaQyr


Saturday, October 12, 2013

Export Coal Mkt New Update - Oct. 1st 2013

CHINA


Coal Splutters as China Seeks Breath of Fresh Air - MoneyBeat - WSJ There is already too much coal on the market, so China's decision to cut down its "energy intensity" will hurt miners. Australia has said it will scale back production. Australian thermal coal destined for Asia is near its lowest price since 2009, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a target of $83 a ton for 2014. And not only does China plan to buy less, it also wants to shop locally. China has trillions of tons of coal reserves that it could exploit.

China's rail shipments of coal up 10.7 percent in Aug On September 22, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that in August this year China's coal shipments by railway totaled 190 million mt, up 18.27 million mt or 10.7 percent year on year. In the January-August period, China's rail shipments of coal amounted to 1.514 billion mt, up 4.16 million mt or 0.3 percent year on year. In particular, China's rail shipments of thermal coal in August alone and in the January-August period in the current year amounted to 132 million mt and 1.059 billion mt, up 9.7 percent and down 1.4 percent, respectively, both on year-on-year basis.

Worst polluting Chinese cities to be named and shamed each month | South China Morning Post The central government set its first provincial-level coal-reduction targets yesterday in a bid to clean up its air, as a foreign car executive said his mainland counterparts could do more to reduce emissions. The industrial region surrounding Beijing will be required to make cuts in its coal use and phase out the dirtiest industries under new, more detailed air pollution targets released yesterday by the Ministry of Environmental Protection. Four northern areas - Beijing, Tianjin , Hebei and Shandong - have been asked to cut teir annual coal consumption by a total of 83 million tonnes by 2017, according to an official document. The four areas currently use a combined 670 million tonnes of coal annually.

CNPC conducts trial LNG shipment to Tibet via rail - Interfax China National Petroleum Corp. has successfully transported an LNG shipment along a section of rail from Qinghai to Tibet, the state-run parent of PetroChina said on Sunday.

Wood Mackenzie sees Russian energy focus shifting to China - UPI.com Wood Mackenzie, a global energy research company, published a report Thursday on Russia's "pivot" to energy-hungry China. "As legacy West Siberian oil production declines, Russia is undergoing a period of renewed interest in exploring and developing the energy resources of its Far East and East Siberia regions," Ian Thom, director of the company's Russian research division, said in a statement Thursday. "These key provinces are sparsely populated, highly resource rich and adjacent to a large and resource-hungry Chinese population, and their development is a major priority for the Russian government."

China's Synthetic Natural Gas Plants Could Accelerate Climate Change - Businessweek Moreover, the scarcely populated hinterland regions earmarked for the SNG plants are dry, while converting coal to gas is a water-intensive process. "The water consumption for [synthetic natural gas] production could worsen water shortages in areas already under significant water stress," write Yang and Jackson. "Overall, the large-scale deployment of SNG will dramatically increase water use, [greenhouse gas] emissions, and additional air and water pollution.

China Faces Steep Climb to Exploit Its Shale Riches - NYTimes.com Several factors stand in the way of shale development. Most of China's shale deposits lie in the earthquake-prone and mountainous southwest or the remote arid deserts of the far west. ...The gas deposits are also deeper — often 4 kilometers, or 13,000 feet, below the surface, compared with 2 to 4 kilometers in the United States. ...According to the E.I.A., the first horizontal shale well drilled by PetroChina, the Chinese oil and gas firm that has been exploring shale most aggressively, took 11 months to drill compared with the usual two weeks in North America.The rough terrain, lack of paved roads and need to drill deeper "will require additional investment and higher upfront costs," says Fei Kwok, ....Unlike the deserts where much of China's shale deposits are located, the Sichuan basin has ample supplies of the water needed for the hydraulic fracturing process, better known as fracking, that unlocks the gas deep underground in the rock. ...Still, Mr. Beveridge believes that the biggest risk to shale gas development may be conflict over water. 

China Gains New Friends in Its Quest for Energy - NYTimes.com On the northern reaches of the Caspian Sea, not far from this old Soviet town known for its oil and sturgeon, lies a vast new oil find, the biggest outside the Middle East. China was rebuffed when it asked for a stake 10 years ago. But when the pumps finally started this month , the China National Petroleum Corporation had won a share in the project, known as Kashagan, and President Xi Jinping was in the region recently to celebrate, another indication that China's influence has eclipsed even Russia's across the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. ...

China's ENN Group eyes investments in Canadian LNG - Natural Gas | Platts News Article & Story Chinese energy firm ENN Group has started "preliminary" talks with Canadian LNG companies to invest in proposed greenfield gas liquefaction and export facilities in British Columbia, the company's international legal director Dong Ren said Tuesday. The group will primarily focus on acquiring an equity stake in the upstream and midstream sectors of an LNG project as well as enter into long-term offtake deals, she said in an interview on the sidelines of the Canada LNG Export Forum, hosted by the DMG Group. "We have identified some companies that are investing in LNG facilities and are in talks with them," she said, without identifying any firms. "Our talks now are focused on the percentage of equity stake, pricing of the equity stake and related commercial elements."...In late-2010, ENN signed a memorandum of understanding with the US' Cheniere to buy 1.5 million mt/year of LNG from the latter's Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana. But, there were no further developments. ...Five major LNG projects are planned for in British Columbia along the Canadian Pacific Coast. They are: Kitimat LNG, backed by Chevron and Apache; the Shell-led LNG Canada; WCC LNG by ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil; Petronas-backed Pacific Northwest LNG; and Prince Rupert LNG led by BG Group.

 INDONESIA
Indonesia Weighs Limit on Coal-Export Terminals, Official Says - Bloomberg Indonesia may restrict the number of terminals allowed to export coal as it seeks to control shipments and boost revenue. "Coal can currently be exported from any loading point,which makes it difficult for us to control," Edi Prasodjo, the coal director at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said in an interview at an industry meeting in Bali today."We're discussing restricting exports in the future to certain ports or shipping points to avoid illegal deliveries."

UK banks financing coal boom destroying Borneo rainforests | The Economic Voice The top 5 UK banks (HSBC, Barclays, Standard Chartered, RBS and Lloyds) are complicit in fuelling climate change and destroying communities and the environment in the rainforests of Indonesian Borneo through their financing of an Indonesian coal boom, according to a new report released today (see video below).

UK-financed coal mining is devastating Indonesian Borneo - Campaigning - The Ecologist 83 per cent of coal produced in Indonesia's top coal mining province, East Kalimantan, is mined by companies part-financed by UK banks. The top 5 banks, HSBC, Barclays, Standard Chartered, RBS and Lloyds, are all involved in bankrolling the coal boom.  The indigenous Dayak people of Kalimantan, who in recent decades have seen industrial logging seriously deplete the forests they rely on, are now confronting destruction on a much greater scale. Many have had to leave their homes to make way for coal mines, particularly in East Kalimantan where Indonesian company Bumi Resources runs a mining project with concessions covering 90,000 hectares. One Dayak community, Segading, has been displaced three times by the mines, and the local leader, Gagay, says his people are fighting against attempts to force them to move yet again.  Open pit coal mining is a far cry from the deep underground mines we associate with the industry in the UK. Bumi Resources' mines have required the clearing of large areas of forest, with hillsides being cut open to expose layers of coal and earth. Once an area has been mined, the company moves on, leaving open scars and tailing ponds full of toxic waste.

AUSTRALIA
Chinese Demand for Coal Easing - WSJ.com ...Producers of thermal coal are scaling back plans, particularly in Australia, which is second only to Indonesia in thermal coal exports. A proposal to double capacity at Newcastle port, the world's largest coal export facility, has been shelved. Analysts predict that many new mines may become unviable, and that the most expensive existing mines will be forced to cut back or close. Smaller Australian miners will find it increasingly difficult to finance projects, while large, diversified resources companies are likely to shift their focus toward more attractive commodities. ...Global coal consumption could grow as little as 2% a year through 2017 in the face of weakening Chinese demand, according to the International Energy Agency's most recent coal-market report. Long-term estimates for Chinese coal demand, for the year 2035, range from 3.66 billion tons of coal equivalent, up from 2.29 billion tons in 2010, to as low as 1.51 billion tons, depending on Beijing's environmental policies. Further darkening the picture for international producers, most of the coal that Chinese utilities are likely to buy in the future will be local. That's because the country sits on trillions of tons of coal reserves, so domestic mines should meet most of China's demand for thermal coal as long as prices remain low and transportation costs affordable, says a Beijing-based coal trader who declined to be named. As a result, UBS expects Chinese coal imports to decline steadily.


S. KOREA
'50 dirtiest' US power plants emit more greenhouse gases than South Korea - CSMonitor.com A new study by an environmental group suggests that reining in a handful of America's coal-fired power plants would have a major impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The study by Environment America paints a bulls-eye on the nation's biggest coal-fired power plants, suggesting that reining in a relatively small share of America's 6,000 electric generating facilities could have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The report comes as the Obama administration is preparing the nation's first-ever greenhouse gas emissions regulations for US power plants, which could be released as soon as this month. The administration's goal is to have power plant emissions regulations in place by 2015, and the new study provides a window into which plants could face steep federal fines unless they slash emissions or close.

JAPAN
ASIA THERMAL COAL: Newcastle spot prices jump as contract talks start in Japan - Coal | Platts News Article & Story A rapid rise in screen-traded Newcastle thermal coal prices overnight to $80/mt FOB got the Asian market talking Thursday, with some participants drawing a link between the higher prices and the start of discussions in Japan for October 1 yearlong supply contracts for Australian thermal coal. The price increase caught some Asian market participants by surprise, as they had not observed any significant changes in the Asian seaborne market that could drive Newcastle 6,300 kcal/kg gross-as-received basis prices higher, sources said. Japan's only functioning nuclear reactor at the Ooi power plant went offline last weekend for maintenance, but market sources did not consider it significant for Japanese thermal coal demand.

J-Power Plans to Start Japan Coal-Price Index to Cut Fuel Cost - Bloomberg Electric Power Development Co. (9513) ,Japan 's largest thermal coal buyer, wants to start a local coal-price index that includes freight and insurance as it seeks toreduce fuel costs. The power wholesaler, known as J-Power, and at least onecounterparty started a system that matches bids and offers toset a monthly price for Australian coal delivered to Japan,Atsushi Yoshida, the director of the company's energy businessdepartment, said in an interview today in Tokyo.

US
Coal Giant's Financials Reveal Export Weakness It's not unusual for commodities-based industries to use hedging as a kind of insurance against losses. But if you subtract the money Cloud Peak made from betting coal prices would fall, they earned only $200,000 exporting coal between April and the end of June. Williams-Derry says with prices expected to remain well below the highs that triggered the export terminal proposals in the first place, that window of opportunity may be closing.

The Local Election That Could Determine The Future Of American Coal - Think Progress The seven-member Whatcom County Council that will be elected next month will decide by majority vote whether to approve what is called a shoreline permit for the proposed export terminal. Four 'no' votes, and it's a goner. "It's a kill strategy: win and be done with it," said Brendon Cechovic, executive director of Washington Conservation Voters. But it's not an all or nothing strategy; if terminal opponents lose they have other opportunities, including the state commissioner of public lands' decision on whether to grant a marine permit and Gov. Jay Inslee's decision regarding clean water permits.

Exports Dip, But Coal Remains King  Coal's dismal domestic outlook due to slumping coal export markets and increased environmental regulations from the Obama Administration resulted in no bids at a recent lease sale on federal coal land in Wyoming—the first time ever that no bids were received. In August, Cloud Peak Energy surprised many by not bidding to develop 145 million tons of federal coal adjacent to its Cordero Rojo site in Wyoming. According to Rick Curtsinger, a Cloud Peak spokesman, the decision not to bid on the coal reflected concerns about the ability to profitably mine the coal for sale to U.S. power producers, which would be the primary market for Wyoming coal. The company is telling us that because of coal's poor domestic outlook, it chose not to bid. The Obama Administration's "war on coal" through over regulation is having some unpleasant effects, which in addition to lost job opportunities,  is reduced revenue from coal lease sales, which means less money for the U.S. Treasury and the states.


Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Recap Major Stories Last Two Weeks

China's State Council announced comprehensive measures to fight pollution that included a halt to construction of coal-fired power plants in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai and plans to nudge the energy mix away from coal. The city of Beijing issued a separate plan to deal with smog, specifically the threat posed by ultra-fine PM 2.5 particles, and included a target to cut coal consumption within the city by 50% (13 million tons) in five years.  

Experts doubt how successful these new plans will be, but the consensus is that prospects for the Beijing plan are better than usual and the State Council's announcement is a serious commitment by the central government. Accountability for the Beijing plan is detailed and the recognition of PM 2.5 danger is a complete turn around from just a 14 months ago when China's environment minister accused the US embassy of stirring up trouble by publishing hourly pollution updates over its four-year old PM 2.5 twitter feed. For the national plan, steps to address inefficiency in Hebei's steel industry stand out as having the potential for real impact if carried out.

On the supply side, Xi Jinping and Chinese energy companies signed agreements with Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan that pave the way for China to quadruple natural gas pipeline imports over the next ten years. Also, the near certainty of China's becoming the world's largest oil importer in the next years is making more of an impression on journalists: the combination of declining US imports and increasing Chinese imports means that this symbolic intersection has arrived well ahead of schedule. 


Beijing Airs Anti-Smog Plan to Slash Coal Use, Vehicles - RFA Michael Lelyveld Beijing has taken a new pledge to clean up its air with plans for deep cuts in coal use and curbs on cars. In the latest push to clear the capital's soot-soiled skies, Beijing's municipal government issued a five-year "action plan" on Sept. 2, vowing to remove 25 percent of the smallest smog-forming particles by 2017. The Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Bureau only began releasing reports on the fine particulates known as PM2.5 in 2012 after years of claiming progress in the number of "blue sky days." But under the new plan, regulators are both recognizing the city's problem with PM2.5 and promising to fight it with tougher steps to control emissions from factories, homes, and cars. "It's a declaration of war against PM2.5," the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau said on its website, as cited by Reuters. Among many measures, the bureau plans to lower coal use in the city by more than 50 percent from 2012 levels, reducing annual consumption by 13 million tons in five years, the official Xinhua news agency said. The authorities would force 1,200 companies to clean up or close polluting production facilities. Beijing would cap the number of vehicles on its roads at 6 million in 2017 from 5.35 million now by reducing new registrations. The city is also considering congestion fees.

China Bans New Coal-Fired Plants in 3 Regions - ABC News China announced Thursday that it will ban new coal-fired power plants in three key industrial regions around Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in its latest bid to combat the country's notorious air pollution. The action plan from the State Council, China's Cabinet, also aims to cut coal's share of the country's total primary energy use to below 65 percent by 2017 and increase the share of nuclear power, natural gas and renewable energy. According to Chinese government statistics, coal consumption accounted for 68.4 percent of total energy use in 2011. New coal-fired power plants will be banned for new projects in the region surrounding Beijing, in the Yangtze Delta region near Shanghai and in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong province, the State Council said.

China seeks cut in coal usage to boost air quality - FT.com ...The targets are built around a commitment by Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, to cut coal usage by 40m tons in 2017 compared with 2012, after months of negotiations with provincial officials wary of killing their industrial base . The cut is based on estimates of how much coal consumption could be eliminated by forcing small or antiquated steel, cement and other industrial plants to close. Steel capacity in the province will drop by 60m tons by 2017, the Hebei government pledged in a separate announcement. The city of Tangshan in northern Hebei is home to about one quarter of China's steel making capacity, and although closing those plants would also help resolve the country's steel glut, the private steelmakers there have already survived many years of central planners' efforts to put them out of business. ..."It's the first step for regions to set a coal target, after 6 per cent per year growth over the past five years. This means they will have to reverse the current trend of coal use growth and to do that you have to adopt cleaner energy," said Li Yan, who heads Greenpeace's climate and energy campaign in Beijing.

China to cut coal use, shut polluters, in bid to clear the air | Reuters China unveiled comprehensive new measures to tackle air pollution on Thursday, with plans to slash coal consumption and close polluting mills, factories and smelters, but experts said implementing the bold targets would be a major challenge. China has been under heavy pressure to address the causes of air pollution after thick, hazardous smog engulfed much of the industrial north, including the capital, Beijing, in January. It has also been anxious to head off potential sources of unrest as an increasingly affluent urban population turns against a growth-at-all-costs economic model that has spoiled much of China's air, water and soil. ...Northern Hebei province, China's biggest steel-producing region, has announced it would slash coal use by 40 million metric tons over the 2012-2015 period.

China local governments propose 2-10 percent coal resource tax: paper | Reuters China's top four coal-producing provinces have proposed that the national coal resource tax be set at between 2 to 10 percent of sales value, local media reported on Tuesday, as part of Beijing's efforts to introduce broader resource tax reforms. Steam coal miners in China , the world's top producer and importer of the fuel, are currently taxed based on sales volumes that are usually very low. Beijing has been planning a value-based tax for years, but efforts to push through changes have stalled over concerns higher prices would hurt economic growth. Faced with weak demand at home at a time when global coal prices have plunged under a supply crush, the governments of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Qinghai areas have proposed that the tax reform must not increase miners' burden and that all other arbitrary levies must be scrapped, the 21st Century Business Herald said, citing government officials. Steam coal prices in China have been steadily falling since December and have dropped about 15 percent this year. Miners' profits have decreased and inventories have climbed, while the amount of money owed to miners by their customers have also surged, according to a recent report by the coal association.

China Oil Recap Last Two Weeks Sept 17th

China set to become top oil importer - FT.com Switch on global market reflects shifting international relations The global oil market will hit a milestone next month when China overtakes America to become the world's largest net oil importer, if projections by the US Energy Information Administration are correct. The switch highlights the shifting international relations driven by the steady growth in China's oil imports and the steep decline in America's.

Weak China oil demand contrasts with recovering economy - thenews.com.pk The market view on China has shifted to one of economic recovery, built on the back of a string of stronger data outcomes, but imports and consumption of crude oil aren't fitting neatly into this narrative. The weakness in August's oil imports has largely been attributed to a correction after July's record, coupled with maintenance of more than 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) at refineries.

China Oil Majors Barred From Expanding Refineries - ABC News Environmental regulators have taken the unusual step of blocking China's two biggest oil producers from expanding their refining capacity after they failed to meet targets for reducing pollution. The penalties for PetroChina and Sinopec are a fresh blow to China's state-owned oil industry following this week's announcements that four senior executives are under investigation for unspecified offenses.

China to invest 80 billion yuan in oil and gas exploration this year | Reuters China will invest 80 billion yuan ($13.07 billion) in oil and gas exploration in 2013, state media said on Sunday, as it tries to boost energy supplies reduce its dependence on energy imports. Oil and gas investment in China has risen from 19 billion yuan in 2002 to 67.3 billion yuan in 2011, the official Xinhua news agency said, citing Ministry of Land and Resources figures. More than 5 billion tons of petroleum reserves and 2.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas were discovered between 2008-2011, Xinhua said. China, the world's biggest energy consuming country, has promised to cut its growing dependence on overseas oil and gas supplies. ...Imported gas is delivered via pipeline from Central Asia and by ship from countries such as Australia , Indonesia and Qatar. China bought 42.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas from overseas last year. That was up more than 30 percent compared with 2011 and a nearly 10-fold increase from 2007.

China / Central Asia Energy Recap of Last Two Weeks

China seeks new oil suppliers amid Mideast turmoil | Al Jazeera America Beijing is digging deeper inroads into alternative oil markets as turmoil in the Middle East threatens a key source of China's international energy supply, industry analysts told Al Jazeera amid President Xi Jinping's whirlwind tour of Central Asia, where he has already penned several multi-billion-dollar energy deals. Xi agreed Wednesday to disburse $3 billion in credits for energy projects in Kyrgyzstan on his visit to the nation across China's northwestern border. The deal came days after Xi's visit to neighboring Kazakhstan, where he bought 8.33 percent of an offshore oilfield for a whopping $5 billion -- just one in a series of energy deals signed on the trip. 

Chinese banks on board for Yamal LNG Russian gas producer Novatek, China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) and a consortium of Chinese banks have signed a memorandum concerning financing for the Yamal LNG project, Novatek said this week.

China to provide new loan to Turkmenistan for Galkinish gas field - Trend.Az Turkmenistan and China have agreed to start negotiations on financing the second phase of development of the Galkinish field which is the second one on the world resources list, the Turkmen Dovlet Khabarlary (TDH) State News Service statement said. According to the statement, the agreement on cooperation on financing the second phase of development of the Galkinish gas field was signed in Ashgabat between the Turkmengas State Concern and State Development Bank of China JSC. Moreover, a contract on the sale of 25 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year was signed between the Turkmengas State Concern and the China National Petroleum Corporation. According to the information this volume will be received from the Galkinish field in the framework of the signed contract to design and build with complete operating readiness, the facility for the production of gas sales with a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters per year. This deal has also been made between the Turkmengas State Concern and China National Petroleum Corporation.

Times Of Central Asia - Tajikistan will transit Turkmen natural gas to China Tajikistan and China have signed a deal to build a natural gas pipeline through Tajikistan to China, Tajik media reported last Saturday. Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rakhmon met on the eve of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek last Thursday and agreed to accelerate the construction of Line D of the Central Asia-China gas pipeline. The pipeline will transport gas from energy-rich Turkmenistan to China. "Carrying out this project will allow us to attract more than $3 billion of direct investments from China into the economy of Tajikistan," said the press service of the Tajik president. The pipeline will supply China with 25 billion-30 billion cubic meters of gas a year, the press service said.

China, Kazakhstan eye deals worth US$30b | South China Morning Post Kazakhstan and China plan to sign 22 agreements worth around US$30 billion, including in the key energy sector, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said on Saturday after talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. "We've reached an agreement on building an oil refinery which Kazakhstan needs," Nazarbayev told reporters after hosting Xi at his Akorda residence. The Chinese leader for his part said his country would become a shareholder in the Central Asian country's Kashagan oil field, one of the world's largest. "An agreement has been reached between the two countries about China's participation in the development of the Kashagan field," he said.

Kazakhstan Oil Field Starts Production After Years of Delay - NYTimes.com After years of delay, the largest oil field outside the Middle East started producing crude on Monday, offering a valuable new deposit to meet the world's rising energy needs. The first oil to flow from the Kashagan field, in Kazakhstan, was just a trickle. But a consortium of oil companies, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips of the United States, have ambitious plans to increase production over the next several years. "This is one of the most complicated projects in the world," Claudio Descalzi, the chief operating officer for exploration and production at Eni, the Italian oil company involved in the project, said in a telephone interview. "It's really an historical moment. It's first-quality oil, very light oil, and we are close to countries that are growing, and that present the best markets." When geologists discovered the field in 2000, it was the largest new deposit since the discovery of the Prudhoe Bay field on the North Slope of Alaska in 1968. And it remains so today, suggesting that such oil sources are becoming harder to 
find.

China, Kazakhstan complete first stage of new gas pipeline - Natural Gas | Platts News Article & Story China National Petroleum Corp said Monday the first stage of a new natural gas pipeline in Kazakhstan has been completed. A ceremony was held on Saturday to mark the completion of the Bozoy-Shymkent segment of the line in the Kazakh capital of Astana during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the Central Asian country, CNPC said."The pipeline project has successfully completed the first stage and is now preparing to transmit gas," CNPC said.  China and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to develop the gas pipeline in August 2007 and a year later CNPC and state-owned KazMunaiGaz formed a joint venture for the construction and operation of the project. The new Kazakh pipeline will have capacity of 10 billion cubic meters/year but this can be expanded to 15 Bcm/year, depending on demand and supply conditions, CNPC said. The first phase stretches 1,143 km from Bozoy in central Kazakhstan near the Aral Sea and ends in Shymkent in the southeast, where it is to link up to the Kazakh section of the Central Asia-China pipeline network. Construction started in July last year.

Xi Jinping agrees US$3b in credits for Kyrgyzstan Energy Projects | South China Morning Post China on Wednesday agreed credits worth over three billion dollars for energy projects in its northern neighbour Kyrgyzstan, during a visit by President Xi Jinping aimed at boosting Beijing's influence in Central Asia. Xi held talks with Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev on the last leg of a major regional tour that has already taken him to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. ... US$1.4 billion of credits will go on a 225 kilometre Kyrgyzstan-China gas pipeline that will pump gas originating from energy-rich Turkmenistan to the Chinese city of Kashgar. The rest of the credit will go on rebuilding a power plant in Bishkek, constructing a new motorway and expanding an oil refinery, he added.
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