ARRC May 14th Update

Greenhouse gas highest since the Pliocene, when sea levels were higher and the Earth was warmer 

The last time the concentration of Earth's main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. 

Is it time for entrepreneurial Alaskans to start raising camels in the Mat-su Valley? Bactrian or dromedary better suited? I lean Bactrian.

Thermal coal market to remain oversupplied this decade - Deutsche Bank (Reuters)

The global thermal coal market will remain oversupplied this decade as dwindling demand for the fuel clashes with rising production, Deutsche Bank said on Thursday.

Thermal coal prices have already dropped around 30 percent since last peaking in 2011 after the nuclear reactor meltdown at Japan's Fukushima power station triggered a boom in coal and gas imports from the world's third biggest economy. Since then, healthy production from coal exporters such as Australia, South Africa and Colombia have clashed with slowing demand from key users in North America, Europe and China, and Deutsche Bank said this trend was set to continue until 2020. 

European coal prices need $80 rise for gas to become competitive- Deutsch Bank (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank seemingly contradicts itself by recommending that traders go long coal and short gas. If you are a market-neutral, spread trader, this recommendation is for you.  A steady decline in European coal prices that has coincided with a tight gas market means that coal prices would have to rise by almost $80 per tonne in order to restore competitiveness to gas for power generation, Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday.

RIP King Coal? Summary piece in the Diplomat blog, recapping where the market stands after the end of Japan / Australia contract price negotiations as well as other consequences of the commodity market hang-over.

King Coal’ may not have been dethroned, but the industry’s recent challenges has left the region’s producers badly bruised. A slump in prices has seen a spate of mine closures, job cuts and earnings downgrades across the Asia-Pacific as coal miners have belatedly come to grips with the end of the boom. Falling Chinese demand, the impact of the U.S. shale boom and rising production have seen prices halve from their peak levels.

USA

Kinder Morgan drops St. Helens coal export terminal plans

Kinder Morgan Inc. decided not to seek permits at the Port of St. Helens industrial park because of the site's logistics, not because the debate over coal exports from the Pacific Northwest to Asia, said spokesman Allen Fore.

Mitch McConnell plans to introduce legislation that would target the Environmental Protection Agency’s coal mining permit approval process

Senator from Kentucky has ideas on how to create jobs in West Virginia.

AUSTRALIA

Glencore Xstrata to Scrap Plans for Australia Coal Export Terminal  

Glencore Xstrata will stop work on a planned 35 million tonnes per annum coal export terminal on Australia's Balaclava Island as a result of poor coal market conditions, the company said on Monday. "This decision has been made as a result of the poor current market conditions in the Australian coal industry, excess port capacity in Queensland, specific shipping limitations and concerns about the industry's medium-term outlook," it said in a statement.

Australia Coal Port Faces Industrial Action

SYDNEY—Unions representing workers at Australia's biggest coal-export terminal have threatened imminent industrial action as a row with Port Waratah Coal Services over job security escalates. PWCS, which counts Rio Tinto RIO.LN +0.93% PLC and Glencore Xstrata GLEN.LN +0.92% PLC as users and major shareholders, exports mostly to Japan and China. The terminal handles more than 105 million metric tons of coal annually at its facilities in the city of Newcastle in Australia's New South Wales state.

Petrovietnam to Import Australian Coal to Meet Energy Needs By Vu Trong Khanh - WSJ

Vietnam plans to import coal from Australia to help it meet rapidly growing energy needs that are being driven by economic growth averaging 7% over the past decade. Vietnam, once a major coal exporter, has seen its foreign sales nosedive as supplies are being kept home for domestic use. Exploitation of abundant reserves of offshore natural gas is going slowly, in part due to commercial wrangling, and Vietnam’s first nuclear power plants won’t start generation until at least 2020.

CHINA

Former head of China's Nat'l Energy Agency (and current deputy head of NDRC, China's most powerful planning agency) is under investigation. 

Liu Tienan is the highest profile official to be investigated under the new Xi Jinping government anti-corruption campaign. Liu is the first real "tiger" to be caught in the "tigers & flies" campaign.

China moves to reform energy taxes - FT/ Leslie Hook 

The tax reforms will shift from volume-based taxes, set years ago and generally very low, to value-based taxes that will fluctuate alongside commodity prices. The new system was implemented for oil and gas late last year, and is expected to be extended to coal and other commodities. . .  Details about the coal tax have been scarce, but analysts believe Beijing will follow the oil and gas model and introduce a value-based tax of about 5 per cent on coking and thermal coal. At current thermal coal prices that would equate to a tax increase of about Rmb 20 a tonne, resulting in more than Rmb 60bn of additional taxes per year. . . Analysts say such an increase is likely to be paired with a streamlining of the local taxes on coal miners, which can vary significantly among provinces, to ameliorate the impact on coal miners’ balance sheets.

China likely to introduce a new tax on coal use

China introduced a round of reforms in November in which the resources tax for oil and gas moved from volume-based to a value-based tax, set at 5 percent of the value of the oil and gas produced. China National Offshore Oil Corp. in its 2012 annual report said the revised tax policy increased oil production costs by nearly 17 percent per barrel. But those reforms didn't include coal, which is still taxed by volume and accounts for about 70 percent of the country's energy generation . . . In March the government set a target to cap coal consumption to 4 billion tons by 2015. . . While there are no exact details about a possible coal tax, analysts say the government likely would follow the oil and gas model and introduce a value-based tax of about 5 percent on coking and thermal coal.

Chinese coal industry hit by global competition and price slumps

Global Times reported that Chinese coal companies have seen their profit margins shrink amid sluggish demand and an influx of cheaper coal imports. 

China coal miners cut output as prices at 3-1/2 yr lows

Chinese coal miners are likely to cut output more to curb losses after a flood of cheap imports and higher hydro power output hit domestic demand in the world's top producer and consumer of the fuel, miners and traders said. . . Smaller miners with higher costs were first to reduce output as the global coal market struggled to absorb abundant supplies, while bigger producers may be forced to follow suit. As the world's top importer, China's demand influences trade flows and prices worldwide.

Coal output slashed in Ordos

China is witnessing another round of coal mine production cuts. Nearly half the coal mines in Ordos, North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have cut production because coal prices have fallen to a near three-year low, industry insiders said Wednesday.

Some small coal mines in the region have even halted production, and only big ones such as China Shenhua Energy Co are still in operation, media reports said. 

Ordos produced 597 million tons of coal in 2012, accounting for over 16 percent of China's total coal production, the 21st Century Business Herald newspaper reported Wednesday. 

Coal prices have been falling since the beginning of this year. Currently quality thermal coal is priced at around 650 yuan ($106) per ton, a 20 percent drop compared with the same period last year.

China’s Sichuan Province Halts All Coal Mines After Series of Explosions kills 40 miners 

China has ordered production suspended at all coal mines in the southwestern province of Sichuan after a blast on May 11 killed 28 workers. Sichuan produces less than 1% of China's coal but these kinds of disasters are behind the drive to close down smaller mines.

April 30th AKRR summary

FYI - The Atlantic has a good cover story by Charles Mann: What If We Never Run Out of Oil? 

The last three weeks in export coal-related news:

CHINA

China's domestic coal production has posted a rare decline, raising new questions about the strength of the economy (Apr 29/Michael Lelyveld/RFA). Michael Lelyveld is always worth reading. He reports that electricity production growth numbers are surprisingly low and that coal imports are up over last year.

China Coal Falls to Lowest Price in Three Years; Stockpiles Drop (Apr 21/Jing Yang/Bloomberg). The stockpile drop is the result of planned maintenance on Qinhuangdao line, not market forces. 

Faltering China demand hangs over Asian coal (Apr 17/Reuters/Fayen Wang). China's thermal coal demand has stalled and imports are set to fall this quarter, producers and traders say, removing the main prop of the Asian market and threatening to cut already weak benchmark Australian coal prices. 

For China's coal miners the outlook is bad. Demand is flat, prices are dropping and imports are increasing. Their only course of action may be to cut production in order to put a floor under prices (Apr 26/Securities Daily/Tang Zhenwei). Shenhua, China's largest coal company, has directed its production units to cut costs 5% . At the same time,electricity producers are enthusiastically seeking imports. The current per tonne price difference between Australia and China is RMB 20-30 (USD $3-$5) and between Indonesia and China is RMB 40-50 RMB and (USD $6-$8). 

On another front, China's domestic coal industry may launch a formal effort to convince the government to create new tariffs on imported coal (in Caijing, citing another report). They want a direct tariff, a VAT, and additional tariffs on low-calorie, high sulfur coal in order to raise domestic prices and limit competition from imports. Relevant bureaus are expected to be cautious introducing any such tariffs because of unexpected trouble they encountered upon inserting tariffs into the coking coal market a few years ago.

JAPAN

Japanese utilities and Australia coal sellers agreed on $95 per tonne price. The new price is down $20 or 17% from last year.  

Reuters April 12th: "Australia's largest thermal coal exporter Xstrata Plc and Japan's Tohoku Electric Power Co have settled a benchmark annual supply contract 17 percent lower than last year, in a victory for cost-pressured Japanese utilities. . . .The price level, which was in line with most analyst expectations, will likely be followed by other Japanese utilities and will be used as a benchmark for Asia."

AUSTRALIA

Australia's environment minister said that he never saw his own agency's risk assessment saying that a proposed coal port posed "extreme" risks at the Great Barrier Reef.

The new Japanese benchmark price is less than the cost of production for 5 millon tonnes of Australian thermal coal and may lead to reductions in supply.

Greenpeace boarded an Australian coal ship bound for S.Korea.

US

The Economist magazine had an overview of the Pac NW export coal dispute: Dirty War.

Tata Power, India’s second- largest generator, is seeking coal assets in the U.S.

Apr 9th, AKRR Summary:

Reading the news about the Pacific thermal coal markets for the past two weeks, one can't help but be pessimistic about prices for the rest of 2013 and 2014. Newcastle benchmark price forecasts for the coming year were reduced several percent by two bank research groups; and the failed Japanese coal contract talks are re-starting next week with what looks to be an 8% cut from the price Australian suppliers anchored themselves to just last week. Perhaps this creates a temporary opening for alternative suppliers like us but, speaking generally, bodes ill for prices. 

Japan

Short Term: Power producers and Australian coal suppliers will restart contract negotiations that timed-out on April 1st due to a major disagreement on price. The new prices could be up to $20 less per tonne than those agreed to this time last year (6,300kcal/kg Newcastle was $115 last year for April 2012 -March 2013 contract).  If the parties can reach an agreement this time around, prices will likely be between $94 & $97 per tonne.

Long Term: Shinzo Abe went to Ulan Bator. Although the idea of thermal coal making it from Mongolia to Japan seems far-fetched right now, it is possible. According to the FT:

A big target for Japan is the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit, one of the biggest in the world, located in the Gobi desert. Japan’s demand for fossil fuels has jumped since the March 2011 Fukushima disaster all but shut down its nuclear-power sector. Mr Abe urged Mongolian leaders to consider allowing Japanese trading companies and other groups to participate in developing the field. Japanese companies were initially left out of a 2011 plan to develop half of the Tavan Tolgoi deposit but those plans have changed and the government plans to build a railroad from the mine that could one day export coal to Japan via Russia.

Australia

In a vote of No Confidence in thermal coal markets, Rio Tinto is going to sell $3bn of  thermal coal assets in Australia. Coal India is interested buying. See Japan section for details on failure of supply contract negotiations that direclty affect Australian supply.

Indonesia

The price for low-grade power-station coal in Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel, fell last week as Chinese stockpiles rose,according to a Bloomberg News survey, Jakarta Globe reported. 

US Port projects

The Coos Bay project was all but canceled. It was the 2nd of 6 proposed Pacific NW coal terminals to be scrapped. 

The Sierra Club plans to sue BNSF and six coal companies for polluting Northwest waters without Clean Water Act permit. 

The two largest projects of the 6 proposed appear to have moved slightly forward.  Platt's: "the two largest export coal terminals proposed in the Pacific Northwest cleared regulatory benchmarks Monday, according to the Washington State Department of Ecology. The state agency has hired ICF International, an environmental consulting company, to help manage the scoping process for the proposed Millennium Bulk Terminal in Longview, Washington, it said Monday .. . Additionally, the state agency released Monday a summary of the roughly 125,000 scoping comments it collected recently for the proposed Gateway Pacific Terminal." 

Platt's list of projects with status:

Terminal	Location	Capacity	Status
Gateway Pacific Terminal	Cherry Point, Washington	48-54 million mt	Pursuing permits, environmental impact assessment
Millennium Bulk Terminals	Longview, Washington	44 million mt	Pursuing permits, environmental impact assessment
Morrow Pacific	Boardman, Oregon	8 million mt	Pursuing permits, environmental impact assessment
Port Westward	Port of St Helens, Oregon	N/A	Due dilligence
Project Mainstay	Port of Coos Bay, Oregon	10 million mt	Abandoned
Port of Grays Harbor	Hoquiam, Washington	5.5 million mt	Abandoned

China:

Short Term Outlook: 

Coal prices in Asia are poised to stall after the biggest quarterly gain in two years as demand from China fails to absorb increased exports from Australia, Colombia and Indonesia (Businessweek Bloomberg).

"Rising hydro power output and swelling coal stockpiles are eroding China’s import needs, threatening returns for producers such as Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and Xstrata Plc (XTA) that are seeking to curb costs to offset falling prices. At the same time, output is increasing from Colombia and Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter, according to a report last month from Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.

“There isn’t a number two option after China,” said Michael Parker, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in Hong Kong. “You’re going to see a decrease in thermal-coal imports into China this year because we have a situation where coal prices are now falling at a time of year when they should be going up.”

“The market is well-supplied in China,” Andrew Driscoll, the head of resources research at CLSA Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in an e-mail. “We forecast thermal coal imports down a little this year to 160 million tons.”

. . . Deutsche bank reduced its 2013 estimate for Newcastle coal by 3 percent to $92 a ton.

. . . Newcastle coal may trade within a range of $85 a ton and $95 a ton from 2013 to 2014 as exporters compete with domestic output in China, Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts including Colin Hamilton in London said in a March 27 note. The fuel may trade toward the bottom end of the range in the near term, they said.

Long Term Outlook (China):  

IHS CERA predicts that Chinese coal imports will peak and then slip into a "prolonged" decline as moderating demand combines with increased domestic production. "Many companies that have targeted China as their strategic supply region in the long term may need to rethink that strategy," Xiaomin Liu, IHS CERA's associate director in Beijing, said. "Some international suppliers will be able to compete effectively, but others will struggle to find a competitive edge as China's market becomes ever more liquid." The US coal industry shouldn't continue to count on China as a major export market, according to a private research firm's recent report whose findings are drawing criticism and skepticism.

Sinopec Group, in an effort to find economical ways to tap Xinjiang's massive thermal coal reserves, is going to invest $11.3 billion to build the country's largest coal-to-gas project. The project will have annual production capacity of 8 billion cubic metres of gas -- and they already have the gas pipeline.

Here is a link to the 60 page Deutsche Bank report forecasting that China will return to exporting coal by 2017 (instead of 2025) IF they undertake measures need to get the air pollution problem under control. The analytic foundation of the report gives new meaning to the idea of building castles in the air -- but is still a useful exercise for understanding what what China would have to accomplish to have safe air to breath.

NYTimes: Air Pollution Linked to 1.2 Million Premature Deaths in China. ANNUALLY - and this is a conservative estimate.

In case you think the pollution and policy angle in China is much ado about nothing, here is another way to gauge the scale of China's coal consumption: within 400 miles of Beijing power plants burn almost as much coal in a year as does the entire United States electricity industry. Add to that lower emission standards, weather patterns and a geography that conspire to trap the pollution during winter, as well as sand storms originating on the steppes of the Gobi desert and you get the the worst air in the world, perhaps ever. There are recent pollution cost estimates ranging from 1.5% to 3.5% of annual GDP. Of course those estimates are just for current deaths. Someone should do a study discounting the costs associated with increased cancer rates, future cardiovascular disease-related deaths and the nascent epidemic in birth defects. The Chinese government will almost certainly have to act to curb coal use in the next few years and disperse industrial activity and generation clusters to the interior and west of the country - away from the ports.

Beijing exodus: Expats may be about to leave Beijing in record numbers as soon as the school year ends -- and rich Beijingers are accelerating their backup emigration plans. 

The already strained-beyond-imagining Dongbei water supply is moving into crisis, thanks in large part to coal plants that consume too much water. 

Other potential supply into China

Russia: Mr. Xi went to Russia to meet Mr. Putin. China’s Shenhua Group and Russia’s EN+ Group agreed to develop coal resources and related infrastructure in East Siberia and the Russian Far East with an eye to expanding Russian coal exports to China. China Development Bank to finance.

Mongolia is seeking someone to build a coal railway from Tavan Tolgoi mine (mostly coking coal) to China. Insisting on using russian gauge instead of standard gauge as if that will stop Mongolia becoming China's mineral colony.

Kyrgyzstan is aiming to become a major coking coal supplier to the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

Abe moves to boost ties with Mongolia
FT - By Jonathan Soble in Tokyo

Japanese premier Shinzo Abe moved to boost ties with another Chinese neighbour at the weekend, visiting Mongolia where he offered increased foreign aid and referred to the countries’ “shared democratic values”.

Second NW terminal scrapped, not reflection on others
Platts / 8 Apr 2013

Terminal	Location	Capacity	Status
Gateway Pacific Terminal	Cherry Point, Washington	48-54 million mt	Pursuing permits, environmental impact assessment
Millennium Bulk Terminals	Longview, Washington	44 million mt	Pursuing permits, environmental impact assessment
Morrow Pacific	Boardman, Oregon	8 million mt	Pursuing permits, environmental impact assessment
Port Westward	Port of St Helens, Oregon	N/A	Due dilligence
Project Mainstay	Port of Coos Bay, Oregon	10 million mt	Abandoned
Port of Grays Harbor	Hoquiam, Washington	5.5 million mt	Abandoned

A second proposed coal export terminal in the Northwest was scrapped last week, but it is not seen as a reflection on the ability of the four remaining terminals to proceed.

"We're not seeing a trend. The two projects not moving forward were the two most speculative," Lauri Hennessey, a spokeswoman for the Alliance for Northwest Jobs and Exports, said Wednesday.

Coal India seeks to buy Rio Tinto's mines
Thursday, Apr 4, 2013, 4:00 IST | Place: Kolkata | Agency: DNA
Sumit Moitra

State-owned Coal India Ltd (CIL), the world's largest coal miner, is eyeing Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto's coal mines, particularly those in Australia, sources in the know told DNA.

Battered by falling global coal prices, rising input costs and strengthening of the Aussie dollar, Rio Tinto has put on the block some of its coal assets like Coal and Allied Industries in Australia’s New South Wales province and other mines in Queensland.

Japanese power, Australian coal producers to resume contract price talks
Platts /8 Apr 2013

More talks have been scheduled between Australian coal producers and their Japanese power utility customers in an attempt to reach a settlement for Japanese financial year (April-March) contract prices which have become deadlocked, market sources said Monday.

Talks overran their April 1 target date this year, and, in an effort to reach a settlement, an Australian thermal coal supplier has agreed to meet Tohoku Electric Power this week and possibly next week, said industry sources.

"Now the prices seem to be in the range of $94-97/mt FOB [basis 6,322 kcal/kg gross-as-received] for the talks, and those numbers could seriously hit the supply capability of the Australian thermal coal industry," said one market participant familiar with the matter.

A price outcome of this kind would be much lower than last year's contract price settlement of $115/mt FOB Newcastle for annual, April-March fuel supply agreements. 

Thermal coal caught in Mexican stand-off
FT / Javier Blas / Apr 2

The global thermal coal industry is in the midst of a rare Mexican stand-off, with billions of dollars of coal shipments and mining investments at stake.

The Australian coal miners, led by Xstrata, and the Japanese utilities, with Tohoku Electric Power Co. as top negotiator, have failed to reach an agreement for their annual supply contracts by the unofficial deadline of April 1.

Worse, the two sides remain far apart, and executives involved in the talks say a deal is unlikely until mid-month. But one fact appears clear: for the first time in three years the annual contracts could be settled below the key $100-a-tonne level.

China to build largest coal-to-gas project
Monday, April 08, 2013

Sinopec Group, China's second largest energy company is to invest up to $11.3 billion (70 billion yuan) to build the country's largest coal-to-gas project in 8-10 years to meet a rising demand for natural gas.

The project will be developed in China's northwestern region of Xinjiang and will have annual production capacity of 8 billion cubic metres of gas.

Coal extracted from two mines in Zhundong will be used to feed coal-to-gas production facilities nearby. The coal mines have annual production capacity of 15 million tonnes each.

The natural gas produced will be transmitted through Sinopec Group's 30 bcm/year pipeline stretching from Xinjiang to Guangdong province in south China to Zhejiang province in east China.


Indonesia low-grade coal prices seen falling on China supply
Borneo Post March 16, 2013, Saturday

The price for low-grade power-station coal in Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel, fell last week as Chinese stockpiles rose, according to a Bloomberg News survey, Jakarta Globe reported news.

Indonesian coal with a calorific value of 4,000 kilocalories a kilogram and 0.5 percent sulfur averaged $39.62 a metric ton in the week ended March 8, down from $42.93 a ton a week earlier, according to the median forecast of three traders in the survey.

Caterpillar cuts highlight mining woes
By Neil Munshi in Chicago

Heavy industry is known for its toughness but one of its biggest players is taking a battering.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of earthmoving equipment, has announced plans to cut about 2,000 jobs in recent weeks, in a further sign of how weakness in the global mining industry and low commodity prices are hurting heavy industry.

The mining industry is being hit on two fronts. The US shale gas boom has driven down natural gas prices, which has caused many power producers to switch from coal to natural gas, while the industrial slowdown in China has also slowed demand for resources in the world’s largest consumer of mined commodities.

Deutsche Special Report on China Air Pollution
Big bang measures to fight air pollution 
To reduce air pollution to a safe level, China will have to drastically change its 
policies on energy, auto, environment and public transport systems. 

Loser # 1: Coal Our projection of coal consumption under the proposed policy package is substantially lower than current market consensus. Our new forecast looks for only 2% annual average growth of coal consumption from 2013-17, vs. our old forecast and market expectations of about 4% (Figure 48). If the long-term volume growth is reduced by more than half, and the sector’s pricing power and profit margin are also lowered due to weaker-than-expected demand, the market reaction could be a de-rating of 20% (e.g.the PE multiple contracts to 7x from 9x), according to cross-country data. We do not think it will happen in the very short term, but do believe it will come sooner than many investors’ perception.

Our coal analyst, James Kan, believes that if the coal consumption scenario under the proposed policy package indeed materializes, China will potentially become a net exporter of coal again (currently China net imports about 200mt a year). That will impact the regional coal industry as well because China’s net import of thermal coal accounts for one quarter of international seaborne thermal coal market. By 2015, thermal coal price could be lower than the current level and marginal cost producers would be pushed out of the economical supply. For H-listed thermal coal stocks, Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK) would be the biggest loser as the company’s assets are generally of high costs and thus some of Yanzhou’s mines will no longer be economical.

Beijing residents rethink life in big smoke

By Jamil Anderlini and Leslie Hook in Beijing

A winter of terrible air pollution in Beijing is likely to be followed this summer by an exodus of expatriates fleeing the Chinese capital, according to senior executives, diplomats and businesses that cater to the expat community.
But it is not just foreign residents who are contemplating leaving and it is not just a couple of months of hazardous smog that has convinced them to go.

China remains a key coal market

The US coal industry shouldn't continue to count on China as a major export market, according to a private research firm's recent report whose findings are drawing criticism and skepticism.

The study by Englewood, Colorado-based research firm IHS CERA predicts that Chinese coal imports will peak and then slip into a "prolonged" decline as moderating demand combines with increased domestic production.
"Many companies that have targeted China as their strategic supply region in the long term may need to rethink that strategy," Xiaomin Liu, IHS CERA's associate director in Beijing, said. "Some international suppliers will be able to compete effectively, but others will struggle to find a competitive edge as China's market becomes ever more liquid."

Sierra Club plans to sue railroads, coal companies over coal dust pollution in Northwest

LYLE, Wash. -- At the railroad berm that divides Horsethief Lake from the Columbia River, you can stick your hand between the rocks and come up with fistfuls of crumbly coal-black pebbles and dust.

Rio Tinto Seeks to Sell Australia Coal Stakes
WSJ

Rio Tinto RIO.LN -0.35% PLC has put stakes in several Australian thermal-coal mines on the block in sales that could fetch around US$3 billion, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday.

In the biggest deal, Rio Tinto is seeking a buyer for up to 29% of its Coal & Allied unit as it moves to cut costs and boost shareholder returns. The mining company wants to reduce its interest in Coal & Allied, which owns mines in eastern Australia's New South Wales state, to as little as 51% and has hired Deutsche Bank DBK.XE -0.88% to handle the sale, the people said.

Coal Seen Stalling After Best Quarter Since 2011: Energy Markets By Ben Sharples on April 03, 2013

Coal prices in Asia are poised to stall after the biggest quarterly gain in two years as demand from China fails to absorb increased exports from Australia, Colombia and Indonesia.

Kyrgyzstan sets sights on Xinjiang coal market
But construction of rail link essential to the Central Asian nation's fuel-supply ambitions
SCMP
Eric Ng

Kyrgyzstan is aiming to become a major coking coal supplier to the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

But the goal will only be realised if a railway is built to link China to the landlocked and mountainous nation in Central Asia to allow low-cost transport of bulk commodities.

State-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation was completing a feasibility study on a railway that would link China's far-western rail terminus at Kashgar in Xinjiang to the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border town of Kara-Suu, said Kyrgyzstan's Economy Minister, Temir Sariev.

He said one proposed route of 300 kilometres would traverse rugged terrain and cost about US$2.5 billion, while a 390-kilometre alternative would cross valleys and villages and cost over US$4 billion.

Air Pollution Linked to 1.2 Million Premature Deaths in China
NYT
Edward Wong

BEIJING — Outdoor air pollution contributed to 1.2 million premature deaths in China in 2010, nearly 40 percent of the global total, according to a new summary of data from a scientific study on leading causes of death worldwide.

Figured another way, the researchers said, China’s toll from pollution was the loss of 25 million healthy years of life from the population.

The data on which the analysis is based was first presented in the ambitious 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study, which was published in December in The Lancet, a British medical journal. The authors decided to break out numbers for specific countries and present the findings at international conferences. The China statistics were offered at a forum in Beijing on Sunday.

Port of Coos Bay coal export proposal ends after 18 months of work
The Oregonian -Scott Learn
The Port of Coos Bay said that it has ended its exclusive negotiating agreement with Metro Ports of California, which had been exploring a coal export terminal in Coos Bay.

The project was one of five under consideration in Oregon and Washington. It was also the only one likely to bring mile-plus coal trains through southeast Portland, Milwaukie, Salem and Eugene.

Coal exports from Australia Newcastle port exceed forecast in March
According to Newcastle Port Corporation, coal shipments from the Port of Newcastle in Queensland, the coal producing state of Australia, totaled 3 million tonne.

The figure constitutes an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous week ended March 25th, in which a WoW increase of 1.3% in coal shipments had been observed.

Money Talks: China-Russia Energy Relations after Xi Jinping’s Visit to Moscow
The series of energy deals signed during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in March 2013 underscore the important role that Chinese capital -- primarily in the form of loans from China Development Bank (CDB) --plays in spurring Eurasian economic integration. The nonbinding agreements inked by Chinese and Russian firms have laid the groundwork for the creation of new energy corridors stretching from Russia to China. Indeed, Xi spoke of oil and natural gas pipelines functioning as an artery connecting China and Russia in the 21st century like the tea road over which traders exchanged Chinese tea for Russian furs did in centuries past. The key to substantially expanding energy trade between Russia (one of the world’s largest exporters of oil, natural gas and coal) and China (one of the world’s largest importers of oil and coal and a growing importer of natural gas) is likely to be CDB. The bank not only has the motivation and means to finance the infrastructure needed for the cost-effective delivery of substantially larger volumes of Russian energy to China. It also has an established track record as a driver of regional economic integration.

Proposed Northwest coal export terminals inch forward
Washington (Platts)--1Apr2013/526 pm EDT/2126 GMT
-Andrew Moore, andrew_moore@platts.com

The two largest export coal terminals proposed in the Pacific Northwest cleared regulatory benchmarks Monday, according to the Washington State Department of Ecology.

The state agency has hired ICF International, an environmental consulting company, to help manage the scoping process for the proposed Millennium Bulk Terminal in Longview, Washington, it said Monday.

CAIJING 电改试金石
对电力体制进行市场化改革是中国最高层11年前的决策，延宕至今，电力改革的理论准备、舆论准备、国际经验、国内探索都已非常充分，改革能否继续，是中国政府推进市场化改革意愿和能力的试金石

Yanzhou Coal to invest $628m in Australian coal assets
EBR Staff Writer -- Published 27 March 2013

China-based mining company Yanzhou Coal Mining has outlined plans to invest A$600m ($628m) to increase the output from its Australian coal assets.

The company expects to raise the coal production capacity in Australia to 50 million metric tons by 2017, up from 26 million tons recorded in 2012, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Commenting on the developments, Yanzhou chairman Li Weimin told the news agency that the company has set a conservative target for its planned expansion in Australia.

The demand in Asia is expected to pick up in two to three years, and high-quality coal from Australian mines can capture the growth, added Weimin.


Mongolia Seeks Partner for Coal Railroad to China, Montsame Says
Bloomberg / Michael Kohn

The Mongolian government is seeking a non-state partner to build a 160-mile (260-kilometer) railway from the Tavan Tolgoi coal field to the Chinese border, the state-run news agency Montsame reported.

The government has accepted bids from 20 companies, including 14 from overseas, the agency said yesterday, without identifying any. The partner will take a 49 percent stake in the project.

Tavan Tolgoi, one of the largest coal deposits in Mongolia, has an estimated 6.4 billion metric tons of reserves, 70 percent of it coking coal for steelmaking. Mining companies at the site, including Hong Kong-listed Mongolia Mining Corp., currently deliver supplies to the border by truck.


ASIA THERMAL COAL: Traders in China switch to Indonesian low cv coal
Platts -- 27 Mar 2013

Chinese buying interest was mostly concentrated on cargoes of lower calorific value thermal coal from Indonesia Wednesday, as traders expressed fears that another decline in domestic thermal coal prices was not far away and could have a destabilizing effect on Chinese spot demand.

..."We have decided not to buy any spot overseas coal for the time being," a Guangdong-based trader said, adding that his firm would focus instead on term contract deals.

Freight costs for coal shippers have plateaued after rallying recently ...

...Some coal producers were less willing to offer cargoes until there was an outcome to talks in Japan to settle April dated annual supply contracts for power utilities.

"A number of coal producers are concentrating on the Japanese negotiations. When they are out of the way, they can start to look at the market again and sell their tons more aggressively," said a trader in Singapore.

...
"Many of the mines in Shanxi have lowered their prices at the pithead. Coal mines are under great pressure," the Chinese trader said, as he expressed uncertainty about the market's direction two months out.

"We can only hope power plants become more active and start to restock by mid-April," he said.

...
"[Chinese buyers] are convinced that Indonesian sellers will have to readjust their prices to international market conditions, depending on when the [Indian] monsoon starts to kick in," he said.

--Mike Cooper, michael_cooper@platts.com


China Coal Producers Seek New Ventures
WSJ

China's coal power sapping up water supply
China's coal power sapping up water supply
Published By United Press International - BEIJING, March 27 (UPI)

Northern China's electricity sector is depleting the arid region's water, says a new study.

Coal-fired power generators in the north, along with coal mining in the same region, were responsible for withdrawing 98 billion cubic meters of fresh water in 2010, nearly 15 percent of China's total fresh water withdrawals that year, says the Bloomberg New Energy Finance report.

While northern China has 60 percent of the country's thermal power, it contains only 20 percent of its fresh water supply.

The report cites China's top five state-owned utilities -- China Huaneng Group, China Datang Corp., China Huadian Corp., China Guodian Corp. and China Power Investment Corp. -- which together have hundreds of gigawatts of coal-fired power plants in the arid northern region.

If the five companies continue with development of coal-fired power plants, those water withdrawals would be 25 percent beyond the government's 2030 target of capping national water withdrawals at 700 billion cubic meters per year, the report says.

But retrofitting the plants with water-efficient solutions could cost billions of dollars, Bloomberg says.

"Thermal plants will have to use more efficient technologies -- but doing so will drive up both capital and operating expenditure," Alasdair Wilson co-author of the report, said in a statement.

Airpocalypse’ drives expats out of Beijing

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Extreme air pollution is driving expatriates out of Beijing and making it much harder for companies to recruit international talent, according to anecdotal accounts from diplomats, senior executives and businesses that cater to the expat community.

March 26th AKRR email summary

The news related to longer-term trends in export coal markets in the Pacific was a little light this last two weeks but still interesting in the details. I'll go out on a limb and say it continues to support a rather glum outlook on price and volume for Pacific seaborne coal for the foreseeable future. 

Indonesia

ASIA THERMAL COAL: Indonesian Panamax deal adds to pressure on Chinese spot prices - Platts --20Mar2013

Competitively-priced cargoes of Indonesian thermal coal added to the downward pressure on Chinese spot prices Wednesday, with a Panamax spot cargo of Kalimantan 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal heard placed into south China at $83/mt CFR basis, market sources said.

Falls in domestic thermal coal prices and a bullish freight market have together made Chinese buyers more restrained in their purchasing behavior for seaborne-traded cargoes. "We don't like booking cargoes far ahead in the current market," said a source at a Shanxi-based trader.

Indonesia aims to produce 391 mil mt of coal in 2013, up 1% on year - Platts --18Mar2013

US

Govs. Inslee, Kitzhaber seek study on coal pollution before building export terminals

Gov. Jay Inslee and Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber wrote a letter to the White House today asking for a study of the climate-change and air-pollution effects of coal leases on federal lands and export of that coal to Asia.

That could put a new obstacle in the way of a series of shipping terminals proposed for Bellingham, Longview and the Oregon coast intended to send coal to Asia. Environmental agencies are already looking into their potential effects, but the two governors want a study of the broader effects of coal burning.

Australia

Australian Newcastle port's coal exports hold steady on week at 2.39 mil mt - Platts --25Mar2013

Coal shipments from Newcastle port in eastern Australia were steady week on week Monday at 2.39 million mt loaded on to 29 ships as the authorities embarked on a round-the-clock dredging program to increase the depth of the shipping channel after a build-up of silt, said a spokeswoman for the Newcastle Port Corporation.

China

China Thermal Coal Supplies Rise to 32-Week High as Price Slides - Bloomberg

Power-station coal stockpiles at China’s largest port for the fuel rose to the highest level in 32 weeks as prices slid to a three-year low.

Utilities in China, the world’s biggest energy user, cut coal consumption as hydro power generation increased in the first two months, according to Helen Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. Stockpiles also rose because the landed cost of imported coal is about 10 yuan to 20 yuan a ton cheaper than domestic supplies, she said. Coal at the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark grade for Asia, cost $89.15 a ton as of March 15, according to data from IHS McCloskey.

“Power plants are keen to restock inventories when domestic coal is still at a premium to imports, leading to high inventories,” Lau said. Chinese prices are “close to a bottom” as the country’s power demand is set to pick up in the second quarter, she said.

Panamax coal freight rates rise as grain season provides ample support - Platts --22Mar2013

 

On China's Electricity Grid, East Needs West—for Coal - Bloomberg/ Businessweek

Nice little summary of the large scale high-voltage transmission project. Most experts think the lack of water makes this unfeasible; and the NDRC wonks think it is a bad idea. But still, it's nice to see that someone wrote an article about this series of massive potential projects.

Unrelated but interesting:

Fredriksen Bets $2.6 Billion New Ships Will Beat Glut: Freight -Bloomberg

I can't decide if this is clever or stupid - and I wonder how much he has sitting idle in Cypriot banks:

John Fredriksen, the richest shipping investor, is spending $2.6 billion on the biggest fleet of fuel-efficient ships in history, betting that record energy costs and a global capacity glut won’t ease any time soon.

India not quite the shining knight for coal miners: Clyde Russell - Reuters

What's a desperate coal exec to do about his stock price with articles like this:

Rising Indian coal imports are the knight in shining armour for producers from the Americas through Africa to Asia -- at least that's the impression the industry is keen to give.

China to start trading coking coal futures on March 22 -Exchange - Reuters

Yes, this is for coking coal; but maybe forward markets will develop for steam coa

Post with data about Daqin RR
标题：大秦铁路投资逻辑：受益铁路改革 中线能涨40%
顶楼   2013-03-22 18:40:00 作者：wujiang124635
难得今天有时间看了半天大秦铁路，由于没有时间去一篇篇翻过往年报，所以在网上搜了一大堆研究报告看了下，给大家说说自己的体会。首先说下结论，大秦铁路现价不高，可以长期持有，而且我把自己的中国中铁卖掉换了大秦铁路。
 
先

On China's Electricity Grid, East Needs West—for Coal
Businessweek / Bloomberg
By Christina Larson on March 21, 2013
Overview of East West electricity transmission (cites China Signpost on Xinjiang coal development, as well as Ailung Yang of WRI and Jennifer Wilson at China Environment Forum in DC (Woodrow Wilson Ctr))

China Thermal Coal Supplies Rise to 32-Week High as Price Slides
Bloomberg
Sarah Chen

Power-station coal stockpiles at China’s largest port for the fuel rose to the highest level in 32 weeks as prices slid to a three-year low. . . 

Utilities in China, the world’s biggest energy user, cut coal consumption as hydro power generation increased in the first two months, according to Helen Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. Stockpiles also rose because the landed cost of imported coal is about 10 yuan to 20 yuan a ton cheaper than domestic supplies, she said. Coal at the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark grade for Asia, cost $89.15 a ton as of March 15, according to data from IHS McCloskey. . . 

“Power plants are keen to restock inventories when domestic coal is still at a premium to imports, leading to high inventories,” Lau said. Chinese prices are “close to a bottom” as the country’s power demand is set to pick up in the second quarter, she said.

Thermal coal market slack amid supply-demand imbalance: SocGen
London (Platts)--21Mar2013/1232 pm EDT/1632 GMT

The seaborne thermal coal market is likely to remain slack as increasing global export capacity over 2013-14 slightly outpaces demand growth, according to a report by Societe Generale Thursday.

The French investment bank revised down its European CIF ARA year-ahead (Cal-14) price forecast by 4% to $99.40/mt in 2013.
...
SocGen said that expected reductions in excess coal supply over the next six quarters would ultimately provide a floor around the $90-95/mt level for CIF ARA calendar year products.

The bank said that "significant changes in prices will only come via material changes in supply and demand balance -- and for the next year we see neither side changing materially."

--Gareth Carpenter, gareth_carpenter@platts.com --Edited by James Leech, james_leech@platts.com

Indonesia Low-Grade Coal Prices Seen Falling on China Supply

Jakarta Globe
March 15, 2013

The price for low-grade power-station coal in Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of the fuel, fell last week as Chinese stockpiles rose, according to a Bloomberg News survey.    
Indonesian coal with a calorific value of 4,000 kilocalories a kilogram and 0.5 percent sulfur averaged $39.62 a metric ton in the week ended March 8, down from $42.93 a ton a week earlier, according to the median forecast of three traders in the survey.     

应适时调整和改变煤炭进口政策
Alibaba
Calling for new standards and limits on coal imports


India not quite the shining knight for coal miners: Clyde Russell

Reuters

Rising Indian coal imports are the knight in shining armour for producers from the Americas through Africa to Asia -- at least that's the impression the industry is keen to give.
That India's coal imports have no option but to rise and the only matter in dispute is by how much, was the consensus of producers and consumers at the Coaltrans India conference this week in Goa.

News from the last two weeks that is relevant to the development of the seaborne market for thermal coal in the Pacific:

USA (Long-Term Supply)

The Coos Bay port project, one of the five proposed coal port expansions in the Pacific Northwest, looks like it will stall because Mitsui and Korean Electric Power have backed out.

South Korea (Demand)
Several South Korean power companies are facing delays in the delivery of Indonesian thermal coal because several miners have deferred shipments from the first quarter to the second due to incessant rain, industry sources said.

China (Demand)

Short-term: 

Platts reports that inventories are rising, prices are falling and that traders are scouting for bargains on thermal coal. 

Long-term:

Political developments that related to long-term prospects for Pacific seaborne coal trade included changes in how the government is responding to public anxiety about pollution (including discussion of limiting low calorie thermal coal imports), and the break-up of the the Rail Ministry, which is expected to lead to more rapid development of freight rail infrastructure. Both developments are part of long-term trends that weaken the generic case for investing in export coal facilities on the Pacific. Deutsche Bank forecasts 18% decrease in coal import volumes if China tightens air regulations and mentions the possibility of China becoming a coal exporter again.

Indonesia (Supply) - Indonesia to halt export of low and mid calorific value coal. I have seen this several places but no mainstream outlets; it doesn't jibe with this Bloomberg article from 6 weeks ago saying that Indonesia would NOT restrict exports of low-calorie coal.

Mongolia (Long-Term Supply) - Major revision of Mongolian mining regulations is underway. The economic downturn, fear of domination by China, and continuous political meddling in previously signed mining contracts has slowed the development of Mongolia's coal and copper reserves. Regulatory changes could remove some of the obstacles that have been erected by politicians in the past few years (e.g., ownership/control requirements) and lead to the more rapid development of the country's resources. 

Botswana (Long-Term Supply) - The Chamber of Mines said they can export 115-million tons of thermal coal in the next seven years. They want a private partner to build 1,500km railroad to Namibian port at Walvis Bay. Not sure how likely this is, but it is relevant to the Pacific because it is indicative of the African supply that could become available to India (instead of supply from Indonesia).

China Coal Price Falls to Three-Year Low as Inventories Rise
Bloomberg News - Mar 10, 2013 9:53 PM GMT-0800

The benchmark price for China’s power-station coal fell to the lowest in more than three years as increased imports of the fuel boosted stockpiles amid a slowdown in power generation.

Spot coal with an energy value of 5,500 kilocalories per kilogram at the port of Qinhuangdao was at a range of 615 yuan ($98.85) to 625 yuan a metric ton as of yesterday, down 5 yuan from the week before, according to data today from the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association. That’s the lowest price since Oct. 19, 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Stockpiles of the fuel at the port rose 3.6 percent to 7.45 million tons, the highest in a month.

Deputy appeals for greener coal mining policies
China Daily
Wei Tian

A legislator has called for more policies to encourage greener exploration of coal in an attempt to improve energy efficiency and reduce pollution.

"Society is now striving to stop extravagance on the dinner table, but what should draw more attention is energy waste," said Bu Changsen, chairman of Shandong Energy Group, the country's second-largest coal producer.

The Coal Monster: Pollution Forces Chinese Leaders to Act
Der Spiegel
Bernhard Zand


No political event or corruption scandal of the recent past has generated as much public attention as this winter's environmental crisis. Chinese bloggers are on a rampage, and even the most loyal government newspapers are examining every aspect of the crisis and attacking those responsible for conditions in China with unprecedented ferocity. The fury over toxic air, food and drinking water marks a political turning point.

限制劣质煤炭进口 减少大气污染物排放
Limit Low Quality Coal Imports, Decrease Air Pollution


Hua Wei the chairman of Shanxi Coal & Chemical Industry Group (3rd largest coal company in China) says China should limit imports of low calorie coal and restrict exports of cleaner, higher grade coals.

新华社北京3月9日电（记者许祖华 江国成）近年来，全球极端气候频发。尤其是今年以来，我国出现了大范围、长时间的雾霾天气，给我们的环境问题敲响了警钟。对此，全国人大代表、陕西煤业化工集团有限责任公司董事长华炜建议，应提高化石能源清洁利用，减少大气污染物排放。

　　华炜建议，我国应限制劣质煤炭进口。去年我国进口煤炭达2.9亿吨，其中大部分是热值不高的动力煤。出口煤炭926万吨，基本是经过洗选的精煤。进口劣质煤炭就等于进口了排放和污染，出口洗精煤就等于把煤泥矸石等污染物留给了自己。因此，建议提高进口煤的质量门槛，禁止进口未经洗选的低热值原煤。

　　同时，限制国内劣质煤生产。有序关停和淘汰我国中东部低热值、高硫分、高灰分煤炭生产。加大中西部地区优质煤炭基地开发，提高煤炭洗选比例。
　　作者：许祖华 江国成

Major Revision of Mongolian Mining Regulations Is Underway
Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 10 Issue
Mendee Jargalsaikhany

The first public debate on the proposed revisions of Mongolia’s mining regulations was conducted at the Citizen’s Hall of the Mongolian government on January 18, 2013. Although the revisions are long overdue, legislators appear to be in agreement that more deliberations are necessary in order to reflect the concerns and suggestions of miners, investors and the public prior to submitting the final bill to the parliament. As stressed by Tsagaan Puntsag, the head of the presidential office, lawmakers avoided politicizing the revisions, opting instead to push for a more comprehensive, long term regulatory framework (Minutes of Debate, Citizen’s Hall of Mongolia, www.irgen.org). 

Fu Chengyu (Sinopec chairman) blames coal not fuel quality for increase in pollution

傅成玉回应“油质不过关”:污染罪魁祸首是煤炭
xinhuanet

“现在大家都骂雾霾是因为我们油质不过关所致，我们也很无奈。”全国政协委员、中石化董事长傅成玉表示，其实中国的标准和欧美国家的标准是一致的，国四、国五也等同于欧四、欧五，只是目前汽油从国三上升到国五，能源消耗要增加44%，没有产生实际效益，很多城市都不愿执行，执行标准不到位。

中石化董事长傅成玉：光在油品上较真儿不全面
http://finance.huanqiu.com

3月5日，全国政协委员、中石化董事长傅成玉在小组讨论政府工作报告时坦言，当前无论是国家经济，还是企业自身，发展都遇上了绕不开的环境问题和能源安全问题。

China's new leadership faces growing environmental pressures
Guardian
Selective quotes

Leaders say 'ecological progress' is a priority, but air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from coal remain a problem
We’re not going to see any big change in 2013, because it is in the middle of China’s 12th five-year plan,” said Melanie Hart, a policy analyst for the Center for American Progress. Still, “the 2011 to 2015 plan is dedicated to move in a low carbon direction,” she said.

...“It (coal consumption) will still continue to grow and grow exponentially,” said Julio Friedmann, energy technology chief at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the United States, and technical program manager for the US-China Clean Energy Research Center for Advanced Coal Technology.
Friedmann said he expects a 50 to 60 percent increase in China’s coal consumption in coming years. That’s not as large as some experts had predicted, but even so, “I do not see a plateau in the coming years,” he said.

China Signals Reform of Rail System
WSJ

BEIJING—China signaled it is on the verge of shaking up its massive railway system, long plagued by corruption allegations and heavy debt and since a deadly 2011 train crash also under a cloud of safety concerns.

Reform of China's Railways Ministry will start once a plan to merge it with China's Transport Ministry is approved, said Vice Railway Minister Hu Yadong on the sidelines of China's once-a-year legislative session.

ASIA THERMAL COAL: Chinese buyers scout for bargains for imported coal
Singapore (Platts)--5Mar2013/547 am EST/1047 GMT

Chinese buyers remained on the sidelines as they continued to scout for thermal coal cargoes at cheaper prices with no rush to conclude deals amid huge stockpiles at ports and power companies, sources said.

Despite the lack of demand, some Indonesian miners have raised their offer prices since last week as supply gets cramped due to rains in East Kalimantan and the crackdown on illegal mining in South Kalimantan, sources said.

A Singapore-based trader said that cargoes of 4,200 kcal/kg GAR coal were being offered as high as $44-45/mt FOB this week, up nearly $3-4 since Friday.

"There is not much movement [of imported coal] to China because of the [higher] prices. [Buyers are] talking prices even lower than what were before the Lunar New Year," he added.

Hu Shuli on what the rail ministry re-org means:
铁路改革的信号意义


Rumors about the structure of new rail ministry
传铁道部将分拆为国家铁路总局和中国铁路总公司


China Clean-Air Policies Seen by Deutsche Cutting Coal Trade 18%
Bloomberg
Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Global shipments of thermal coal could be 18 percent lower than forecasted by 2015 should China, the biggest importer, toughen measures to curb air pollution to safe levels, Deutsche Bank AG said.

. . . The potential revisions to coal demand as a result of a higher resource tax and levies on carbon and other emissions would likely reduce coal import demand markedly, and possibly even return China to the status of net exporter, which last occurred in 2008,” according to the report. 

Colombia Lifts Port Ban on Drummond Coal Shipments

Colombia's government has ended a nearly monthlong ban on coal shipments by the U.S. -based Drummond Co. that was imposed after it dumped tons of coal into the ocean at a Caribbean port.
....Drummond produces 24 million metric tons of coal in Colombia from an open pit mine near the Caribbean and moves the coal by train to a port near Santa Marta. It is the South American country's No. 2 producer of coal, accounting for nearly a quarter of output.

Colombia top coal mine reaches accord that may end strike

A union representing workers at Colombia’s biggest coal mine said it reached a preliminary wage accord that may end a monthlong strike at the complex owned by Xstrata Plc, BHP Billiton Limited and Anglo American Plc.

S Korea copes with Q1 delays in Indonesian coal delivery, confident on Q2
PLATTS

Several South Korean power companies are facing delays in the delivery of Indonesian thermal coal because several miners have deferred shipments from the first quarter to the second due to incessant rain, industry sources said.

However, South Korean market participants said they were hopeful that this issue could be resolved by mid-March.

Heavy rain on the coal-producing Indonesian islands of Kalimantan and Sumatra have led to delays in shipping cargoes of lower calorific value coal by small- and medium-sized producers, industry sources said. Platts has so far confirmed Q1 delivery delays of at least six Panamax shipments of Indonesian coal with heating values of 4,600-4,800 kcal/kg NAR.

However, one South Korean power utility source said contract overbooking by shippers also contributed to the delays.

Greenpeace Report: The Myth of China's Endless Coal Demand: A missing market for US Exports
Nice fairly objective summary of all the reasons not to be optimistic about coal exports. I think they overestimate the ability of the government to curb consumption of coal and the ability to substitute in renewable on a large enough scale. But still a good summary of all the things that point to moderating increases in demand for coal

A new report identifies several factors that cast doubt on the future of Chinese demand for US coal, including new national and local policies in China aimed at reducing air pollution and capping coal use, slowing economic growth, surging renewable energy growth, and increased public concern about air pollution

1. A DESPERATE INDUSTRY—NOT SOUND ECONOMICS—
IS DRIVING US COAL EXPORT PROPOSALS
2. CHINA PRODUCES NEARLY ALL Of THE COAL IT CONSUMES
3. CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH IS SLOWING
4. COAL USE IN CHINA IS FLATTENING OUT
5. CHINESE POLICY CAPS ON COAL PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION WILL DECOUPLE ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM COAL
6. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS ON THE RISE
7. CHINESE SOCIETY IS RESISTING COAL AND bECOMING MORE
AWARE Of ITS IMPACTS ON HEALTH AND WATER
8. UNSTABLE ASIAN DEMAND HAS SUNK US COAL EXPORT
PROPOSALS IN THE PAST
9. INTERNATIONAL COMPETITORS RECOGNIZE FLAGGING CHINESE
DEMAND

China's Ministry of Railways to be merged into Transport Ministry
International Railway Journal
The first ministry-level reform in five years

CHINA's Ministry of Railways (MOR) and the country's transport ministry are set to be merged, under plans reportedly agreed this week by the country's new leaders

China’s rail ministry faces break-up

FT
Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing
Should make investment in the industry easier.

Marred by corruption and weighed down by debt, China’s railway ministry is expected to be eliminated in a shake-up that would mark the first governance reforms by the country’s new leadership.

The railway ministry has long functioned as a state within a state in China, with its own police, courts and some 2.1m employees. By taking on such a powerful entity, Xi Jinping, the incoming president, would be displaying a willingness to push through changes to the country’s system of government that are needed to sustain rapid economic growth.

The restructuring, which local media say was discussed at a Communist party assembly that ended on Thursday, is likely to fall short of reformers’ hopes for consolidation of the bodies that oversee financial and energy affairs.

Nevertheless, rolling the railway ministry into the transport ministry, a change previous leaders discussed but failed to implement, will mark the first major change to the Chinese bureaucracy in five years.