进口煤优势重现 煤炭进口商豪赌套利2012年12月14日
来源:21世纪经济报道
Story starts with Gao Hong (nervous 忐忑 tante (34)) - he just signed a big contract that involved 20 million loan to buy up a mine's entire output. He has bet the entire company on what happens to prices next year
观望市场 - waiting on the market sidelines
But, other buyers are not signing contracts to import coal because they are waiting for the prices to come down. Right now the quoted prices are too high. One such guy is VP Shen Zhaozhou - he is looking for Africa or Indonesia 5500KCal coal - the 628 RMB price he just got quoted is too high. He thinks that demand in South China and along the coast will increase and that supplies are sufficient, but that if the economy doesn't recovery then life is going to get difficult (中间贸易商的日子肯定不好过)
价格优势重现 - the reappearance of price advantage
Prices in May had 160RMB spread between Australia and Qinhuangdao CIF. For 5500Kcal coal, at 20-30 RMB price difference between guonei and guowai is enough to set users about importing again. Especially power producers who will buy cheaper imported coal and go so far as break orders/ contracts. The last 3 years large users (power plants and steelworks) have gotten usedto importing and if a price discrepancy reappears, they will import more.
This presents a challenge to domestic coal producers and their current set prices won't work;as soon as they go up a little the buyers will import. Coastal power producers are still have a high leve. of enthusiastic about importing coal
At the same time there is information arising that domestic producing regions prices are going to be adjusted upwards. 电煤价格并轨对进口煤市场短期内影响不大。而长期来看，取消了重点电煤之后，进口煤的区位优势和价格优势可能会进一步显现，进口煤的竞争力相对会有所增强。
他解释，由于取消了重点电煤，国内用煤企业对国际市场的关注可能也会增加，未来单独的进口贸易越来越难做，必须要和国外的矿商和国内的终端用户联合起来，才能有效降低风险。
Quotes an analyst name Li Yan who thinks that import markets are going to become more important - more important for large users who will focus more on these markets that will become more competitive. Independently importing will become harder and it will be more important to work with overseas mines and domestic end-users to limit risk.
Special words:
到岸价 - daoanjia (CIF)
李延 - Li Yan coal analyst 中商流通生产力促进中心分析 (DPPC Distribution Promotion and Producitivity Center)
浙江启新煤电集团 - 副总经理 - 沈兆洲 - Shen Zhao Zhou - VP of Zhejiang XXXX
国家能源主管部门 -
按兵不动 = anbingbudong - hold back the troops (wait and see)
套利 - taoli(44) arbitrage